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09-02-2008, 12:54 AM
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The market implied probability of a software unlock
In finance, you can tell a lot from the prices of things. For example, we know that an unlocked iPhone 3g costs around $1200 and a locked on around $800 while an iPod touch is about $400
Since not software unlocking is just like having an iPod touch we get: 800 = P(Unlock) * 1200 + P(Not unlock) * 400 P(Not unlock) = 1 - P(Unlock). Therefore: 800 = P(Unlock) * 1200 + 400 - P(Unlock) * 400 P(Unlock) = 400/800 = 50% The market thinks there is a 50% chance 
        
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09-02-2008, 01:06 AM
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My god.. where did that come from?
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09-02-2008, 05:42 PM
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You forgot about standard deviation values from country's market availability and economical stats.
Also, your product values are a bit out of scope. A locked iPhone is not being sold by $400, but by $300, and an iTouch by $400. This alone would drop your soft unlock probability. And do not forget about effort. In other words, sorry but your math does not applies to unlocking.
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09-02-2008, 06:23 PM
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Yes, but you also have to factor in the fact that the iPhone without service has a camera, speakers, a microphone, a gps, and external volume control, a lot more features than a simple iTouch.
Oh, and there's more availability of the iTouch, so people who would other wise want an iPhone might go for the iTouch and get another phone. Yeah, the whole math thing just doesn't work in real life, as has been observed before.
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09-02-2008, 06:34 PM
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i think this guy just got out of stats class :S.... anyway good try to simplfy something that is a lot more complcated. hey the compkid....man....u bringing xkcd here.... hah.. u break me man lol.... rep up for u just cuz of that lol
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How to Unlock the iPhone 3G Solve Low signal on iPhone 2G - May help with greyed out WiFi issue. if post helped...rep up please. ... thanks
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(and wrong crack dealer, likely 
Linear Mode
