Ok, I got a pretty long list but here is what appears to be the video part.
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VIDEO: [VP70] 512x384 24bpp 30.000 fps 389.9 kbps (47.6 kbyte/s)
Auto-selected AVI audio ID = 1
[V] filefmt:3 fourcc:0x30375056 size:512x384 fps:30.000 ftime:=0.0333
get_path('sub/') -> '/Users/frontrow/.mplayer/sub/'
================================================== ========================
Opening video decoder: [vfwex] Win32/VfWex video codecs
======= Win32 (VFW) VIDEO Codec init =======
WARNING: Attempting to use DLL codecs but environment variable
DYLD_BIND_AT_LAUNCH not set. This will likely crash.
Loading codec DLL: 'vp7vfw.dll'
Win32 LoadLibrary failed to load: vp7vfw.dll, /usr/local/lib/codecs/vp7vfw.dll, /usr/lib/win32/vp7vfw.dll, /usr/local/lib/win32/vp7vfw.dll
Can't open library vp7vfw.dll
ICOpen failed! unknown codec / wrong parameters?
VDecoder init failed
Cannot find codec matching selected -vo and video format 0x30375056.
Read DOCS/HTML/en/codecs.html!
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Does any of this help? It appears as though vp7vfw.dll is not installed by the mplayer codec package. Odd as it is on my mac in /usr/local/lib/codecs . I believe the same package is used by the nitoTV installer. Maybe a manual install?
ls